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The automobile third party insurance merit-rating systems of 22 countries are simulated and compared, using as main tools the stationary average premium level, the variability of the policyholders' payments, their elasticity with respect to the claim frequency, and the magnitude of the hunger for bonus. Our main interest goes to the following side-effect of experience rating: since an unfavourable claim experience results in a premium increase, an experience rated policyholder is stimulated to self-insure small damages. The scope of the Bubble has now grown to unprecedented dimensions - throughout virtually all securities and asset markets - and it's global: stocks - small caps, mid-caps, large-caps - risky and “defensive” - growth and income; bonds - sovereign, corporate, “developed” and “developing”; and all varieties of derivatives. I believe the best kept secret is that enormous amounts of global “hot money” are flooding into king dollar asset markets - U.S. It’s possible, but I don’t believe Fed talk can end the reign of king dollar. The last person remaining at the end of this round assimilated the other player's score (if any) into his/her winnings and advanced to the endgame. Elsewhere, Fed holdings for foreign owners of Treasury, Agency Debt last week dropped $24.5bn to a one-year low $3.223 TN.
Federal Reserve Credit last week jumped $10.7bn to $4.461 TN. Global central bank "international reserve assets" (excluding gold) - as tallied by Bloomberg - were down $68bn y-o-y, or 0.6%, to $11.653 TN. Reserve Assets are now down $380bn from the August 2014 peak. U.S. Corporate Bond holdings declined $110bn SAAR, while Miscellaneous Assets expanded $227bn SAAR. Central bank market intervention moved from short-term interest rates, to long-term bond yields and the yield curve, to risk market prices more generally - to now wanton manipulation of the currency markets. Five-year T-note yields sank 17 bps to 1.42% (down 24bps). Ten-year Treasury yields fell 18 bps to 1.93% (down 24bps). Long bond yields sank 19 bps to 2.51% (down 25bps). Benchmark Fannie MBS yields dropped 15 bps to 2.68% (down 15bps). 바카라사이트 between benchmark MBS and 10-year Treasury yields widened three bps to 75 bps. Japanese 10-year "JGB" yields fell eight bps to 0.32% (unchanged y-t-d). Japan's Nikkei equities index gained 1.6% to a new 15-year high (up 12.1% y-t-d). Freddie Mac 30-year fixed mortgage rates dropped eight bps to 3.78% (down 9bps y-t-d). Indeed, contracting household mortgage debt and stagnant corporate borrowings were leading to a highly unusual decline in private-sector Credit.
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In fact, I can't imagine how anyone could read it that way. It was never going to go smoothly, but when it comes to dealing with market distortions and Bubbles the earlier the better. Bubble’s strangulation of deflating EM and commodities Bubbles. The upshot was a week of wild currency and commodities market volatility. Long dollar, short EM, short crude and commodities trades had become crowded. Markets, economies and societies were being pushed to their limits - so why not short their currencies and make some easy money. I doubt the Fed at this point can dissuade the EM short trade. During the past year, Fed Credit inflated $287bn, or 6.9%. Fed Credit inflated $1.650 TN, or 59%, over the past 123 weeks. The number of schoolies has declined in recent weeks as they always do around this time. Over recent weeks the king dollar dynamic has turned increasingly destabilizing. Could the dollar have put in a short-term peak? EM. This is really the essence of king dollar - an inflating U.S. At the same time, aggressive Fed policymaking continues to provide a competitive advantage to U.S.